In an era of fantasy sports and 24-hour online news cycles, you can pretty much put numbers to anything. No lie, I just read on the ‘net that 100 people a year choke to death on ballpoint pens and that the average lifespan of a major league baseball is seven pitches.

Thoroughbred racing might rest at the pinnacle of the information age. Few sports provide the kind of statistical minutia that horseplayers find commonplace. In a mere 8×2 past performance printout for a single horse, we find literally thousands of results, projections, analyses and wonderments.

Because horses don’t talk, and most horsemen don’t tell the whole truth when they do, it’s those statistics that we’re left with in trying to put a common-sense bow on a confusing package. Does anyone buy any of the given reasons why Curlin won’t be pointed to the Breeders’ Cup Classic? Is turf really the best way to get Big Brown to the big dance, or just a band-aid over a soft course for what could be still-problematic feet? Why on earth are one-time industry spokespersons like Nick Zito and Bob Baffert so defiant about all-weather tracks?

With the powerful help of Daily Racing Form’s web-based Formulator tools, we’ll try to look at some of the pressing questions leading up to this year’s Breeders’ Cup. Formulator has been around since 2000, but its most recent overhaul turned the intriguing, but sometimes gangly, handicapping tool into a well-oiled machine. No more downloads. Fewer windows pop up to and fro with information galore. In short, researching both computer and user-generated handicapping information just got a few-hundred clicks easier.

While an everyday handicapper might utilize Formulator to uncover unique trainer patterns in the sixth from Saratoga, the service actually lends itself to much more than that. Within a few keystrokes, I’m able to answer my own query concerning trainer Steve Asmussen’s apparent aversion to Southern California racing. In the past five years, the nation’s most expansive barn, which has stables from New Mexico to New York and all points (big and small) in-between, has started a grand total of 12 horses on the left coast.

Of those 12, Asmussen owns just a pair of wins, both coming in Hollywood Park’s listed Cinderella Stakes, a late spring contest for 2-year-old fillies. These numbers come both in the all-weather track era and the dirt-track era, so obviously surface is not the lone reason to avoid California. At the 2003 Breeders’ Cup on dirt at Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Asmussen’s favored Cuvee finished last in the Juvenile, while Lady Tak (Distaff) and Posse (Sprint) finished off the board as well.

Perhaps those are among the reasons why he’s not so hip on sending Curlin to California? Certainly, his stable’s performance on all-weather tracks won’t help make the “Curlin-to-the-Classic” case either. According to Formulator, Asmussen trainees are just 1-for-23 in graded stakes on all-weather tracks and only 7-for-23 in the money. Sky Mom’s 2008 Grade 3 Arlington Oaks win in Chicago helped eliminate the ziggy. Student Council’s non-effort this year in the Pacific Classic over Polytrack raises more doubts, considering he won the event last year when under Vladimir Cerin’s short-term care.

But let’s not just point fingers at Asmussen’s record. Nick ZIto has all but given up on trying to win on the all-weather tracks, sporting a measly 4-for-46 career record on the plastics. His last win came in April of 2007, and two of those wins came with $10,000 and $16,000 claiming horses he was dropping and unloading (both were claimed). In seven career graded-stakes starts on all-weather tracks, Zito trainees have never finished better than Stevil’s fourth in April’s Grade 1 Blue Grass at Keeneland.

Bob Baffert has been the most vociferous big-name trainer to speak out against the all-weather tracks in California, and his 49-for-364 (13%) career mark on the surfaces certainly is below his lofty overall standards. But Baffert’s top horses have not found the all-weather going as difficult, winning a very strong 8-for-36 attempts (22%) in graded stakes races. Six different Baffert trainees have notched graded stakes wins on all-weather tracks, including the likes of Indian Blessing, Midnight Lute and Tough Tiz’s Sis. The barn’s only big-name runner to truly flop on the plastics has been Pussycat Doll.

And what about Big Brown?

Trainer Rick Dutrow has posted a woeful 2-for-32 ledger on all-weather tracks, scoring victories with 4-to-5 and 8-to-5 favorites at Hollywood and Keeneland. He tried eventual Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Kip Deville on the Hollywood Park Cushion Track in last summer’s Grade 2 Californian, where he never fired when eighth. The plan for Big Brown to acclimate to the new Pro Ride synthetic surface at Santa Anita is to prep in the made-for-him Monmouth Stakes on the turf. Note that the turf-to-synthetic move has not worked wonders for Dutrow in the past, however, winning just 1-of-8 tries (an entry level allowance at Keeneland with 8-to-5 favorite Hot Sunrise last October). As for California dreamin’, Dutrow has struggled mightily out west, winning just 4-for-57 the last five years, with two of those coming in turf stakes wins by Kip Deville. Horse of the Year Saint Liam was a no-show on the old dirt in the Santa Anita Handicap, but a world-beater everywhere else.

As for last weekend’s big winners, Travers champ Colonel John and Pacific Classic hero Go Between, we can also “Formulate” an opinion on what their performances might mean. Trainer Bill Mott hinted that Go Between could train up to the Breeders’ Cup Classic, which would be a similar pattern he had prior to his Pacific Classic score. But note that Go Between bucked a stable trend as Mott previously was just 3-for-27 the past five years when asking his graded-stakes performers to return from a layoff between 8 and 10 weeks.

Would Garrett Gomez be better off riding Colonel John or Go Between in the Classic? That’s a tough call, but note Gomez and Go Between’s trainer, the aforementioned Mott, have been aces in tandem on synthetic surfaces, winning 29 percent and finishing in the money 71 percent of the time. And, according to Formulator’s post-race, manageable chart functions, Go Between ran the last quarter of the Pacific Classic light years quicker than Colonel John’s Travers, :23.85 to :25.96.

Speaking of fleet finishes, Sunday’s Grade 1 Ballerina winner Intangaroo continues to impress and get better as the season unfolds. In her three major seven-furlong wins this year, according to her Formulator charts, she came home the last furlong in :12.49 in the Santa Monica, :13.08 in the Humana Distaff and a mind-blowing :12.34 in the Ballerina. Consider runner-up Miraculous Miss ran a stellar :12.47 final eighth and could not keep pace.

Special thanks to Daily Racing Form for allowing me to take a test drive on its revamped Formulator dashboard environment. The online world has become such a major part of handicapping, and now consists of more than 10 percent of the print giant’s business, according to Marc Attenberg, DRF vice president/internet.

The Formulator team has done a fantastic job in incorporating so many former ala carte elements into the new interface, placing a premium on a horseplayer’s valuable time. Within a click of a horse’s past performances, thousands of tools come to life, such as workout tabs, race videos, charts, trainer records, analysis and more.

All good research takes time, and the successful handicapper still will be the one who outworks the competition. Keep in mind, much of the user-generated functions of programs like Formulator place a premium on your horseplaying acumen, which is to understand what’s important to today’s race – or future events like the Breeders’ Cup.

Posted on August 27th, 2008 by admin
Filed under: Horse Racing news